While earlier it had placed this likelihood at just 5%, following Boris Johnson’s upbeat meeting with his Irish counterpart Leo Varadkar, the bank has placed the likelihood of a deal at 50%.
On Friday JPMorgan stated, it now expects Britain to strike a deal with the European Union over Brexit. The development comes midst an upbeat meeting on Thursday between Britain and Ireland’s leaders.
“This changes everything – we now expect a deal,” wrote one of JPMorgan’s key Brexit watchers, Malcolm Barr, in a note.
Although there are few details that are available, Barr stated, “if our understanding of the situation is correct, a “solution” to the Irish border problem which could ultimately be acceptable to all parties (if rather inelegant) has been identified.”
JPMorgan now sees a 50% chance of a withdrawal agreement being struck with a “modified/time-limited” Irish backstop. Previously it had put this likelihood at just 5%.
British Prime Minister Boris Johnson and his Irish counterpart Leo Varadkar had said they saw “a pathway to a possible deal”.