Set for growth spurts are the countries of Argentina, Brazil, Russia and Nigeria
Led by recoveries in several of Latin America’s largest economies, a pickup in the U.S., and continued robustness from China and India, everyone can expect more good news than bad when it comes to global growth this year.
According to an analysis of the latest Bloomberg consensus outlook, while 33 will see a deterioration in global economics, the Bottom of Form
expectation is that 62 economies are slated for an improvement compared with last year. Together with energy exporters Nigeria and Russia which are expected to do well thanks to a rebound in the price of oil from a 13-year low in January 2016, Argentina and Brazil are both set to shift from contraction to expansion and they are near the top of the list.
While Venezuela is still facing a deep economic crisis, with high inflation and shortages of food and other basics, the country actually came in first place for the biggest economic improvement — 7.5 percentage points from 2016 to 2017.
Instead, attention is now on Brazil as the country recovers from its worst recession in a century and is touted to be the real poster child of 2017. Brazil is now benefiting from rising commodity prices as President Michel Temer tries to shore up the country’s finances and boost private-sector activity after being marred by its biggest bribery scandal in history, which saw the impeachment of a president. And in Argentina, growth is set to accelerate by over 5 percentage points this year and is expected to deliver a story similar to that of Brazil. However, here the gains are most likely to be offset by high inflation.
And there are lesser reasons to celebrate for in some countries. Along with protest-prone Romania, unemployment-ridden Spain, and one of President Donald Trump’s frequent targets, Mexico, In Iceland, growth is forecast to fall to 4 percent in 2017 from 7.1 percent last year.
Even as they’re both expected to slow marginally compared to 2016, emerging market giants China and India will remain the envies of the world — growing by 6.5 percent or more each. Expected to attain a growth boost this year of 2.3 percent, the U.S. is in line for a respectable growth boost.
While throughout 2016 South Africa dealt with a historic drought and widespread labour strikes, there are few signs of underlying strength in the economy and more a reflection of just how bad 2016 was for the country and hence the projected speed of growth in South Africa may be slightly misleading.
Including that of the U.K., which is set to kick off Brexit negotiations with the European Union, Europe’s largest economies, meanwhile, should brace for easing of their already lackluster growth. France, whose 2017 elections will be watched closely as a pivotal moment for the EU and the euro-area, would be the standout growth star on the continent.
(Adapted from Bloomberg)