Polls Show Momentum for Brexit Resulting in Fall of Pound and Volatility Jump

Reviving concern the June 23 referendum will throw global markets into turmoil and undermine confidence in the 28-nation trading bloc, polls showed more Britons favored quitting the European Union and the pound dropped to a three-week low.

Three surveys on Monday showed a lead for the ‘Leave’ campaign following which the sterling fell against all of its developed-market peers.

While institutions including the International Monetary Fund and Organisation for Economic Cooperation and Development have warned of dire consequences if the nation chooses to leave the world’s largest single market, the Bank of England has said uncertainty surrounding the vote is hurting U.K. growth.

At a time when the international economy is already losing momentum, the referendum is undermining confidence in the global outlook, said the Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago President, Charles Evans.

“Today’s move was a function of reality sinking in for overseas investors — the referendum will be a close outcome. We’re probably seeing some of those long post-Brexit pound bets unwind,” said Viraj Patel, a foreign-exchange strategist at ING Groep NV in London.

After falling as much as 1.1 percent to the lowest since May 16, the pound dropped 0.9 percent to $1.4390 as of 11:28 a.m. in London. Touching the lowest in more than three weeks, it slipped 0.7 percent to 78.88 pence per euro. Noting the highest climb since February 2009, the one-month implied volatility in the pound-dollar pair climbed to 22 percent

According to ING’s Patel, before the Brexit vote, the U.K. currency will trade below $1.40 in the two weeks or so.

He said that it’s better to buy the euro versus the pound before the Federal Reserve’s June 15 policy decision as the “wavering” dollar makes bets on the sterling spot rate harder.

Compared with 41 percent opting to ‘Remain’, 45 percent would vote ‘Leave’, found a YouGov Plc poll for television company ITV Plc. 43 percent backing an EU exit and 41 percent wanting to stay in were shown in a survey by global market research company TNS. 48 percent supported quitting the trading bloc, while 43 percent were in favor of remaining and 9 percent were undecided, according to the results of an online poll.

Sliding to a seven-year low of $1.3836 in February before rallying as surveys in April and May showed the ‘Remain’ camp pulling ahead, the pound has been a gauge of sentiment throughout the referendum debate.

“The market got carried away with itself when it seemed like the ‘Remain’ camp were extending their lead. Despite the most recent polls, I still get the sense that there’s an underlying expectation that the vote to remain will win, and this could be a dangerous assumption. As we move closer to voting day, if polls continue to show Brexit in with a real chance, then sterling has room to fall further,” said John Goldie, a senior dealer at Argentex LLP, a currency advisory company in London.

In a battle that’s split the ruling Conservative Party, the polls increase the pressure on Prime Minister David Cameron. While former premier John Major took to the airwaves this weekend to condemn the “squalid” Brexit campaign, Chancellor of the Exchequer George Osborne has stepped up warnings of the economic consequences of quitting the EU.

(Adapted from Bloomberg)



Categories: Economy & Finance, Uncategorized

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