A prominent government scientist from China said on Saturday that the probability of a large Covid-19 uptick in China within the next two or three months is distant because 80% of individuals in the country have already been infected by the virus.

The current and ongoing Lunar New Year holiday period has raised concerns of the further spread the pandemic, and there are concerns that it would increase infections in some areas. However, a fresh second Covid wave is not likely in the near term, according to Wu Zunyou, chief epidemiologist at the China Center for Disease Control and Prevention, on the social media platform Weibo.

During the Lunar New Year holiday period, hundreds of millions of Chinese currently are in transit all over the country as they reunite with family members and friends – a reunion that had been prevented previously due to previous Covid curbs which have been recently relaxed. This has raised concerns about the possibility new Covid outbreaks particularly in the rural areas of the country that are less equipped to handle large outbreaks.

According to a National Health Commission official, the peak of the number of people being infected seriously with Covid has passed as the number of patients that are being reported to have visited fever clinics, or emergency rooms, and with diagnosed critical conditions have reduced. 

According to government data, nearly 60,000 people with Covid died in hospitals as of Jan. 12, roughly a month after China abruptly ended its zero-Covid policy.

However, some experts believe that figure likely understates the true impact because it excludes those who die at home and because many doctors have stated that they are discouraged from citing Covid as a cause of death.

(Adapted from Reuters.com)

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