According to analysts at APK-Inform, Ukraine is likely to face a significant shortage of storing facilities in the 2022-2023 season following a sharp fall in exports as a fallout of the Russian invasion.
Since late February, Ukraine has been forced to export grain by train over its western border as well as from small Danube river ports rather than by sea.
On Tuesday, APK-Inform said, Ukraine’s exports could total to 45.5 million tonnes of 2021’s harvest of 86 million tonnes; grain and oilseeds stocks at the end of the current season might reach an all-time high 21.3 million tonne high.
“This volume is 4.2 times higher than in the previous season and will not allow to release a significant share of storing capacities for the new harvest,” said APK-Inform.
Last week, Ukraine’s Agriculture Ministry said, it had exported 763,000 tonnes of grain in the first 29 days of April against 2.8 million tonnes in the previous year.
APK-Inform’s report mentions that while Ukraine could harvest 55.9 million tonnes of grains and oilseeds in 2022, the shortage in capacity could total 16.3 million tonnes.
State statistics office data shows that Ukraine’s total storage capacity is 75 million tonnes, which includes 44.5 million tonnes held by agricultural producers. However since some of this capacity is located within the area of conflict, it reduces the availability of volume to around 61 million tonnes, equivalent to around 35% of its capacity.
“At the same time, the pace of the sowing campaign and weather conditions contribute to increasing the forecasts of grain and oilseeds production in Ukraine, which will further complicate the situation without proper sale of existing reserves,” said APK-Inform’s report.
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