According to a new analysis on global warming and climate change, for the global auto sector to play a vital role on the issue of global warming and keeping the rise in global temperature at the Paris agreement’s 1.5C goal, production and sale of new petrol and diesel car Europe has to be shut down before 2030.
The German Aerospace Centre (DLR) also claims that by 2035, all of the plug-in hybrids vehicles would also have to be phased out from usage,.
Unless there is a very significant change, the auto industry will completely use up all of their carbon budget in the next 5 to 10 years because very little in terms of vehicle emissions have changed over the last decade or so, said scientists at the DLR scientists say.
“Auto CO2-emissions need to peak as soon as possible,” Prof Horst Friedrich, DLR’s director, told the media. “Looking at the dwindling carbon budget it is crucial to push low-emitting cars into the market, the earlier the better, to renew the fleet.”
If very significant measures are taken by the industry, there would still be only a 66% chance of meeting the 1.5C goal. Such measures should also include a general fall in the sale of conventional cars by 20200 to about 5 million from the current number of 15 million a year.
If this system is followed the auto industry should be selling the last vehicle with an internal combustion engine in 2028 and by 2040, all diesel and petrol powered-cars need to be eliminated from running.
The report also notes the importance of behavioural; change among people to accept walking, cycling and using the public transport systems as the means of travelling.
“It would be much easier to keep a 2C target because there is a higher carbon budget and therefore more time to implement the necessary measures,” Friedrich said. “I estimate it could provide us with up to 10 years more time to prepare much better for the fundamental transformations necessary.”
About 10 million more people residing in the coastal areas of the world would be exposed to floods, storm surges and crop damage to a greater extent if there is a rise in global temperature by 2C compared to what the number would be of the rise is controlled at 1.5C, says a draft report by the UN Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. There would be a rise of 10 cm for global sea levels and heatwaves t\would last for longer periods of time. Extreme weather would be stronger and result in slower economic growth. There would also be significant decline in crop yields and water availability.
The “gaming” of emission tests has resulted in Europe’s car manufacturers not making any real enhancement for reduction of C O2 emission for the last five years, believes some analysts.
“It is still hard to predict whether the alternative powertrains will have gained a significantly high market share by 2030. This is dependent on factors that are outside the control of automobile manufacturers, such as the necessary recharging infrastructure being in place as well appropriate incentives”, said a spokesperson for the European Automobile Manufacturers Association.
(Adapted from TheGuardian.com)