YouGov projection forecasts Theresa May losing the June 8 elections

May’s rating took a downward slide when she revealed her tax strategy for the elderly which opponents dubbed as “dementia tax”.

As per a YouGov projection, British Prime Minister Theresa May could lose in Britain’s June 8 election.

As per the YouGov model, May is likely to lose as many as 20 seats along with her 17-seat working majority in the 650-seat British parliament. Other models however project May as wining by a huge majority with a Kantar poll showing her as widening her lead.

If the YouGov model comes into play May would be well short of the 326 seats needed to form a government tasked to successfully negotiate the complicated Brexit talks.

As per the results of a later poll carried out by YouGov for Thursday’s Times newspaper, May’s Conservative Party was forecast as having only three percentage points ahead of Labour, which has been gradually eating into her lead since the start of the election campaign.

As a result of these findings, the sterling saw further weakening against the USD.

May called the snap election to strengthen her grip within the party and so as to strengthen her hand during Brexit negotiations. If her electoral gamble fails, her authority within the party would be undermined and she will be forced to strike a deal with another party in order to continue to remain in power.

On April 18 when May stunned financial markets and politicians with her snap election, opinion polls suggested she could potentially emulate Margaret Thatcher’s 1983 majority of 144 seats or even threaten Tony Blair’s 1997 Labour majority of 179 seats.

However, over the past month, her ratings have tread a downward path, especially when she revealed that she wants to hike up the cost elderly citizens for their maintenance, a proposal dubbed as the “dementia tax” by opponents.

On Wednesday, when asked by a reporter if she would resign if she lost seats, May deftly dodged the question saying that the only poll that mattered was the election on June 8.

Recent opinion polls have shown May’s lead contract by a range of 5 to 14 percentage points.

YouGov stated that its election model was based on voting intention figures which gave May a lead of just 3 percentage points.

“Once the Conservative lead falls below 7 points we are potentially in the world of a hung parliament,” said John Curtice, president of the British Polling Council.

“Support for Labour among younger voters has gone up and gone up dramatically but then the crucial question is whether these young people will come out to vote,” said Curtice.

YouGov uses a technique called “Multilevel Regression and Post-stratification” which factors in a range of variables including the results of past elections, demographics and voter profiles.

Although betting markets see May trouncing her opponents on the Jun 8 elections, their predictions were wrong in 2016’s June 23 referendum.

YouGov has acknowledged that its model allow for a wide margin of error and that the samples in each constituency were small.


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