Alphabet’s autonomous‑vehicle arm, Waymo, is rapidly scaling up its driverless taxi service across U.S. cities even as Tesla moves to broaden its nascent robotaxi operations. Waymo recently crossed the 100 million fully autonomous miles driven milestone—doubling its total in just six months—and now completes more than 250,000 paid rides per week in markets from San Francisco to Atlanta. Meanwhile, Tesla has quietly flipped the switch on a trial robotaxi network of Model Y SUVs in Austin and plans to extend service into the San Francisco Bay Area within weeks. The twin developments highlight the intensifying competition in robotaxis and underscore how far the technology has come—and how much further it must go—to win mainstream acceptance.

Waymo’s Autonomous Fleet Scales Miles and Rides

Since logging its first million driverless miles in January 2023, Waymo has methodically expanded both its vehicle fleet and service area. As of July 2025, Waymo’s fleet of some 1,500 vehicles collectively covers more than 200 square miles across six U.S. metro regions—San Francisco, Los Angeles, Phoenix, Austin, Atlanta, and a forthcoming launch in Washington, D.C. The company has applied to test vehicles in New York City under a trained‑safety‑driver model, with plans to move to fully driverless service once regulators grant approval.

Each week, Waymo cars traverse over two million autonomous miles and carry more than a quarter‑million fare‑paying passengers. That pace has pushed the company’s total fully driverless trips to over 10 million since commercial service began. Alongside sheer scale, Waymo emphasizes safety: its on‑road collision rate is roughly 80 percent lower than that of human drivers, and its vehicles have logged significantly fewer injury‑causing incidents on public streets. These gains stem from investments in redundant sensor arrays, sophisticated machine‑learning models, and millions of miles of simulation testing to expose potential edge‑case scenarios.

To bolster capacity, Waymo is in talks with Hyundai to source additional Ioniq 5 electric vehicles, and has also ordered more Jaguar I‑PACE electric SUVs, aiming to more than double its self‑driving fleet within the next 12 months. Morgan Stanley projects Waymo’s annual revenue could top \$180 million in 2025, reflecting over 100 percent year‑over‑year growth as ride‑hail volumes surge. As regulatory hurdles ease in key jurisdictions, Waymo plans to extend free‑way autonomy on select routes and introduce new service zones of up to 80 square miles in existing cities, further cementing its first‑mover advantage in the robotaxi market.

Tesla’s Cautious But Rapid Rollout Gains Momentum

Tesla’s entry into robotaxis arrived quietly on June 22, when a dozen Model Y SUVs operating under its Full Self‑Driving (FSD) beta software began ferrying invite‑only passengers around a defined area of downtown Austin. Each test ride features a human safety monitor behind the wheel, but no one is to touch the controls barring emergencies. The geofenced service area—initially less than 20 square miles—has already doubled in size to around 42 square miles, encompassing major corridors such as the University of Texas campus and key arterial roads.

Elon Musk has vowed to expand the service to the San Francisco Bay Area “in a month or two,” pending local approvals. That timeline would mark a strategic return to Tesla’s home turf, where the company’s Autopilot systems enjoy some of the most extensive real‑world testing data. Unlike Waymo’s deliberate rollout, Tesla’s approach leverages its existing customer base: FSD subscribers can opt in to earn credits by sharing their vehicle data, accelerating fleet learning at minimal incremental cost.

Despite high‑profile controversies over FSD reliability and federal safety probes following several collisions, Tesla’s robotaxi trial has proceeded without major incidents. Company executives emphasize that each new service zone yields fresh data on sensor performance, edge‑case handling, and user behavior. To ensure rapid scaling, Tesla is fast‑tracking the deployment of its next‑generation HW 4.0 hardware suite—featuring improved cameras, computing power, and safety monitoring—to all new Model Ys bound for robotaxi duty. If regulators in California and other states grant permission, Tesla could have hundreds of robotaxis on the road by early 2026.

Competition Spurs Innovation and Regulatory Scrutiny

The robotaxi field has proven tougher than many anticipated, with high development costs, stringent regulations, and intermittent public skepticism. Several entrants, including General Motors’ Cruise, have scaled back or halted operations amid regulatory delays and funding shortfalls. In contrast, Waymo and Tesla remain the frontrunners: Waymo for its systemized, safety‑first ethos; Tesla for its agile, data‑driven expansion model. A handful of upstarts—Amazon‑backed Zoox in Las Vegas and Mobileye testing in parts of Michigan—are also vying for a slice of the future‑of‑mobility pie.

Regulators at the National Highway Traffic Safety Administration (NHTSA) and state agencies continue to probe both firms following incidents involving test vehicles. Waymo has responded by publishing detailed safety reports and updating its software over the air to address rare but critical failure modes. Tesla, meanwhile, has defended its approach by pointing to millions of miles driven under Autopilot and emphasizes that its safety monitors can intervene instantly if the software errs.

Municipalities are likewise evolving their permitting frameworks. Washington, D.C., is drafting rules that would allow fully driverless taxis in designated zones by late 2026, while New York City is evaluating stringent data‑sharing requirements for autonomous‑vehicle operators. Stakeholders across automakers, tech companies, labor groups, and disability advocates are weighing in on issues from pricing fairness to zero‑occupant “robo‑delivery” services. The outcome of these debates will shape the speed and breadth of robotaxi adoption nationwide.

A Turning Point for Urban Mobility

As Waymo and Tesla deepen their robotaxi footprints, they are effectively rewriting the playbook for urban transportation. For consumers, on‑demand, fully autonomous rides promise lower wait times, standardized pricing, and the elimination of stressful driving tasks. For cities, widespread robotaxi networks could ease parking shortages, reduce greenhouse‑gas emissions—especially as fleets shift to electric vehicles—and free up curb space for micromobility and delivery services.

Yet challenges remain. Both companies must ensure that service coverage extends beyond dense city centers to suburban and underserved neighborhoods. Infrastructure investments in high‑power charging, secure passenger pickup zones, and integrated mobility‑as‑a‑service (MaaS) apps will be critical. Public acceptance hinges on consistent safety performance and transparent incident reporting. Meanwhile, union advocates and taxi regulators are lobbying for robust worker protections and limits on uncrewed services.

Looking ahead, Waymo aims to launch full driverless rides in Washington, D.C., next year and has applied for uncrewed operations in Manhattan. Tesla’s path depends on regulatory green lights in California and other early‑adopter states. As both scale up, they will sharpen pressure on traditional ride‑hail platforms and automakers to integrate autonomous capabilities into their offerings. The next 12 months will test whether robotaxis can transition from niche pilots to everyday mobility solutions—and which company will claim the lead in the driverless era.

(Adapted from CNBC.com)

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