India and Canada, two countries with deep-rooted connections through trade, immigration, and shared democratic values, have witnessed a significant decline in their relationship over the past year. What began as a diplomatic disagreement in 2023 over allegations surrounding a Sikh separatist leader’s death has spiraled into a web of accusations, diplomatic expulsions, and rising public criticism from both governments. The situation has become a high-stakes diplomatic standoff with each country levying new accusations, retaliations, and restrictions on diplomatic personnel.

Rising Tensions Over Khalistani Activism

The latest phase of the diplomatic rift began in June 2023, when Hardeep Singh Nijjar, a Canadian citizen and prominent Sikh separatist leader, was shot dead outside a Sikh temple in British Columbia. Nijjar, a vocal advocate of Khalistan, a proposed independent Sikh state in India’s Punjab region, had been on India’s radar for years. Indian authorities accused him of involvement in terrorism, while Nijjar denied any wrongdoing. In Canada, Nijjar was known for his activism and advocacy within the Sikh community, which has a strong presence, especially in British Columbia and Ontario.

Shortly after his death, Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau raised concerns about “credible allegations” of Indian involvement in Nijjar’s assassination, a statement that led to a severe backlash from India. The Indian government categorically denied the allegations, calling them “absurd” and “politically motivated.” India also criticized Canada for allegedly harboring Khalistani separatists and accused the country of not doing enough to curb anti-India activities on Canadian soil.

Escalating Diplomatic Retaliations

The diplomatic row quickly intensified. In September 2023, Canada expelled an Indian diplomat over alleged involvement in Nijjar’s killing. India responded by expelling a Canadian diplomat and later suspending visa services for Canadian citizens. Both nations subsequently issued travel advisories for their citizens, warning of possible risks in each other’s territories.

The situation escalated again in October 2024, when a report by The Washington Post alleged that Indian Home Minister Amit Shah was involved in a campaign targeting Sikh separatists in Canada. These reports, citing unnamed Canadian officials, accused Shah of directing surveillance and intimidation efforts against Sikh activists. India swiftly dismissed the claims, calling them baseless and politically motivated.

India’s Response and Concerns Over Canadian Surveillance

On November 1, 2024, India’s Ministry of External Affairs summoned Canada’s High Commissioner to issue a formal protest against these accusations. Foreign Ministry spokesperson Randhir Jaiswal stated that India viewed the allegations as an attempt to interfere in its internal affairs and an affront to the Union Home Minister. According to Jaiswal, the claims could severely affect the already tense bilateral relationship. He reiterated India’s concern about the “unfounded insinuations” made by Canadian officials.

Furthermore, Jaiswal disclosed that Canada had informed Indian consular officials about surveillance measures, including audio and video monitoring, on their diplomatic staff. India termed this action as “harassment and intimidation,” alleging that it constituted a violation of diplomatic protocols. The Canadian government has not yet commented on these claims, although it is expected to issue a statement in response.

Canada’s Domestic Pressure and Sikh Community Dynamics

The tensions between Canada and India are complicated by the strong presence of the Sikh diaspora in Canada, one of the largest outside India, with nearly 800,000 individuals. The Sikh community in Canada holds significant political sway, especially in areas like Ontario and British Columbia, and Canadian politicians have traditionally maintained ties with Sikh activists, including those advocating for Khalistan.

Trudeau’s Liberal government has faced mounting pressure from members of the Sikh community, who accuse India of undermining their democratic rights. At the same time, Trudeau’s administration is grappling with accusations from Indian officials that Canada has become a haven for anti-India elements. Many in India view Canada’s stance as influenced by political considerations, with Canadian leaders allegedly courting votes from Sikh voters sympathetic to the Khalistan movement.

The presence of prominent figures in Canadian politics, including ministers of Sikh descent, adds a layer of complexity to the diplomatic challenge. Canadian officials have argued that they are simply upholding freedom of expression, which includes the right to peaceful advocacy, even if that advocacy involves calls for independence.

Economic and Trade Implications of the Tensions

These diplomatic strains come at a time when both countries had been working towards deepening economic ties. Canada and India have been negotiating a Comprehensive Economic Partnership Agreement (CEPA) aimed at expanding trade, investment, and economic cooperation. However, the ongoing tensions have cast a shadow over these negotiations, which were already progressing slowly.

The economic stakes are significant. India is Canada’s tenth-largest trading partner, with two-way trade valued at over $10 billion. Canada exports billions worth of commodities, including pulses and timber, to India, while Indian firms in the IT, pharmaceutical, and manufacturing sectors have increased their footprint in Canada. In the absence of any resolution to the diplomatic crisis, both sides may face economic consequences. Trade deals could be delayed, and Canadian firms in India might face challenges due to reduced governmental cooperation.

Moreover, Canada recently withdrew several diplomats from its missions in India after the Indian government requested a reduction in the number of Canadian staff. The resulting downsizing has disrupted consular services, including visa processing and assistance for Canadian businesses operating in India.

Possible Mediation and International Reactions

The growing rift has attracted the attention of international stakeholders. The United States, the United Kingdom, and other Western allies have expressed concern, encouraging both countries to resolve their issues through diplomatic channels. Washington has a particularly vested interest in seeing its allies cooperate, given its security and trade interests in the Indo-Pacific region.

For the Canadian government, securing U.S. support could be crucial, given the influence the U.S. holds over India as a strategic partner. Washington has maintained close ties with India as part of its broader Indo-Pacific strategy, which seeks to counterbalance China’s growing influence. However, given the importance of both countries as allies, the U.S. is likely to tread carefully, promoting diplomacy without overtly taking sides.

International organizations, including the United Nations, have also voiced the need for respect for diplomatic norms and protocols. Both India and Canada are members of the Commonwealth, and the organization’s representatives have been monitoring the situation closely.

Public Opinion and the Way Forward

The prolonged diplomatic dispute has triggered a wave of public opinion in both countries. In India, many view Canada’s accusations as baseless and an affront to its national sovereignty. The Indian media has widely criticized Canada, questioning its commitment to addressing security concerns involving anti-India elements.

In Canada, however, public opinion remains divided. While some Canadians criticize Trudeau’s handling of the issue, arguing it could damage relations with a major trade partner, others see his actions as a necessary stand for Canada’s sovereignty. The Sikh community, in particular, has remained vocal, calling for accountability and transparency from the Indian government regarding Nijjar’s death.

Resolving these tensions will require careful diplomacy, with both countries needing to balance domestic pressures and long-term interests. Observers suggest that Canada and India could consider third-party mediation to de-escalate the situation, though both countries have been reluctant to internationalize the dispute. Until then, the India-Canada standoff is likely to continue affecting trade, travel, and diplomatic cooperation.

A Relationship in Need of Repair

The ongoing tensions between India and Canada mark one of the lowest points in the relationship between the two countries in recent years. While both nations have much to gain from collaboration, particularly in trade, technology, and global security, the deepening crisis has raised questions about how the two democratic allies can find common ground amid intense domestic and political pressures.

(Adapted from AlJazeera.com)

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