According to a regional survey, most Southeast Asians would side with China rather than the United States if they had to choose, yet some nations that feel threatened by Beijing’s claims in the South China Sea still favour Washington.

Since 2020, when the topic was first asked in the yearly survey, Beijing has not surpassed Washington. Preference for the United States fell from 61.1% to 49.5% in the previous year.

1,994 people from academia, business, government, civil society, and the media participated in the poll, which was carried out between January 3 and February 23 by the Singapore-based think tank ASEAN Studies Centre at ISEAS–Yusof Ishak Institute.

The Association of Southeast Asian Nations comprised the respondents, with Singapore and Indonesia accounting for the largest proportion of participation.

According to the survey, Japan remains the most trusted major power in the area, while China emerged as the most strategically relevant partner for ASEAN, surpassing the United States with over 50% of the vote.

For the past four years, China and ASEAN have been each other’s top trading partners, with a combined trade volume of $911.7 billion in 2023.

But half of the respondents also showed mistrust for China, with 45.5% expressing concern that Beijing would use its might (both military and economic) to undermine their nation’s interests and sovereignty, according to the report.

The two frontline South China Sea claimant states in the region, the Philippines (90.2%) and Vietnam (72.5%), are most concerned about China’s aggressive behaviour in the South China Sea.

Last month, Philippine President Ferdinand Marcos Jr. told Bloomberg that China shouldn’t be offended by his country’s claims to specific areas of the South China Sea.

“This is not poking the bear, as it were. We are trying to do quite the opposite. We are trying to keep things at a manageable level, to continue the dialogue, whatever they are, at every level,” he said.

Additionally, Vietnam has claimed sovereignty over islands in the South China Sea, but Beijing has rejected such claims.

According to the survey, respondents from Vietnam (79%) and the Philippines (83.3%) still lean towards supporting the United States over China.

The London School of Economics and Political Science’s think tank LSE IDEAS’s Kendrick Chan stated, “While China has gained some ground in Southeast Asia in terms of garnering favourable public perception, it is worth noting that some of its most acute territorial disputes are also located in the region.”

Nearly half of the survey respondents said that ASEAN should strengthen its unity and resilience to withstand pressure from the two big powers, the United States and China.

The majority of Southeast Asians (57.7%) worry about unemployment and an economic downturn as a result of the ongoing global macroeconomic instability. The survey suggests that the reasons behind those concerns may have been China’s economic decline.

The confrontation between Israel and Hamas in October 2023 and the ensuing Houthi attacks in the Red Sea are additional causes for concern. Even though they may be occurring far away geographically, supply chain disruptions that could have an immediate impact on the price of food and energy are how the consequences are felt.

“This year’s survey results clearly reflect heightened regional concerns over economic issues and the risk that unrestrained geopolitical rivalry that can adversely affect the region’s interests in the short to medium term,” Choi Shing Kwok, director and CEO at ISEAS-Yusof Ishak Institute said in a statement.

“At the same time, the results also tell us that the region remains hopeful that major powers can cooperate on issues of mutual benefit and welcomes other major powers in the region to engage more closely with ASEAN.”

According to the Xinhua news agency, Chinese President Xi Jinping had a meeting on Monday with Prabowo Subianto, the incoming president of Indonesia.

According to Xi, China is prepared to expand its overall strategic cooperation with Indonesia and sees its relationship with the country as crucial and long-term.

In an effort to strengthen collaboration, Beijing said on Monday that ministers from Timor-Leste, Vietnam, and Laos will each visit China separately from April 2 to 5. Wang Yi, China’s foreign minister, invited them.

(Adapted from Time.com)

Categories: Economy & Finance, Geopolitics, Strategy