The energy research firm Wood Mackenzie predicted that this year’s global oil demand will increase by 1.9 million barrels per day (bpd), which is comparable to the Organisation of the Petroleum Exporting Countries’ (OPEC) 2024 estimate.

Vice president of oils research at the company, Alan Gelder, told delegates at a Wood Mac briefing on Wednesday during the Energy Institute conference in London that he believed, like with most other forecasts, that China and India would account for the majority of that increase.
Differences in opinion regarding the speed at which the world will move away from fossil fuels can be seen in the widely divergent forecasts for the growth of oil demand in 2024.

The IEA, which represents industrialised nations, projects that oil demand will peak by 2030, contrary to OPEC’s prediction that it will continue to rise over the next 20 years.
The International Energy Agency projects significantly slower growth of 1.22 million bpd, while OPEC anticipates another year of very high demand growth of 2.25 million bpd.
According to a comprehensive Reuters study, most analysts predict that between one million and 1.5 million barrels of oil will be used globally by 2024.

Wood Mac projects a lower 1.4 million bpd growth in demand in 2025. In 2025, OPEC projects growth of 1.85 million barrels per day, and the IEA is anticipated to make its forecast in April.

Since late 2022, OPEC+ has reduced output to maintain the market as supply from non-member countries and the United States has increased.

OPEC+ decided in November to implement voluntary output reductions for the first quarter of roughly 2.2 million bpd. Reuters was informed earlier this week by sources that OPEC+ may decide to continue the cuts through the end of the year and into the second quarter.

Despite the decision made in November, Wood Mac’s Gelder stated that members should anticipate being asked to increase volumes in order to balance the market in 2024. He also stated that he believes the cuts will be maintained until the second quarter.

Rising geopolitical tensions this year, such as attacks on Red Sea ships by the Houthi group, which is affiliated with Iran, have helped to support oil prices; nevertheless, worries about economic growth and high interest rates in Western economies have also contributed to this

trend.
On Thursday, the price of a barrel of Brent crude reached above $83.00.

(Adapted from Reuters.com)

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