China’s population is anticipated to fall for the second consecutive year in 2023 due to an increase in COVID-related deaths after the country abruptly lifted severe lockdowns, while low trust in the economy’s prospects keeps birth rates low.

Demographers predict that the number of new births in 2023 will be lower than the 9.56 million recorded in 2022, as long-standing concerns such as gender inequality and high childcare expenses remain largely ignored. China’s birth rate has been falling since 2016.

Youth unemployment reached new highs, earnings for many government officials and white-collar workers plummeted, and a crisis in the property industry, which accounts for more than two-thirds of household wealth, worsened.

The report will exacerbate concerns that the world’s second-largest economy’s growth prospects are dwindling due to fewer workers and consumers, while costs for aged care and retirement benefits place more burden on indebted local governments.

“The slower-than-expected economic recovery and the uncertainty of the future in China play a bigger role” in fertility than any positive effect coming from lifting COVID curbs, said Xiujian Peng, senior research fellow at the Centre of Policy Studies at Victoria University in Melbourne.

Demographers predict mortality to have skyrocketed when the COVID-19 virus raced through China’s 1.41 billion people early last year, after Beijing suddenly lifted restrictions in December 2022.

China reported 121,889 COVID deaths to the World Health Organisation, the majority of which would have happened after the limitations were removed. The UN had accused Beijing of underreporting deaths, which officials constantly disputed.

Overwhelmed crematoriums and pressure on doctors not to categorise fatalities as COVID-related had raised concerns about China’s data openness. In a rare move last July, China’s Zhejiang province, home to 5% of the country’s population, recorded a 70% increase in cremations between January and March last year. The data has since been removed.

Between December 2022 and January 2023, the Fred Hutchinson Cancer Centre in Seattle estimated 1.87 million more deaths from all causes among Chinese over the age of 30 than would be expected.

Zhou Yun, a demographer at the University of Michigan, believes that next week’s data may understate the population reduction in order to disguise the size of the COVID impact and project optimism.

“Population data reporting in China is as much a demographic issue as it is a political event,” she said.

The population decline occurs as China faces the issue of a rapidly ageing demographic. The number of persons over the age of 60 is predicted to rise from approximately 280 million now to more than 400 million by 2035, surpassing the population of the United States.

Aside from low salaries and significant employment instability, demographers cite gender discrimination and expectations that women take on the caregiving role in the family for limiting childbearing.

Last year, President Xi Jinping stated that women should share “good family tradition stories,” and that it was critical to “actively cultivate a new culture of marriage and childbearing,” which he tied to national growth.

Local governments have launched a variety of initiatives to stimulate childbirth, including tax breaks, extended maternity leave, and housing assistance.

One set of statistics indicating to decreased birth rates in 2023 is the 2022 drop in marriage rates to their lowest level since 1979. Marriages are viewed as a leading indicator of births in China, because most single women are unable to get child-rearing assistance.

Marriages are anticipated to increase year on year in 2023, according to state media, as the COVID backlog is cleared, but demographers say this will not alleviate long-term concerns about China’s decreasing and ageing population.

China’s fertility rate fell to a record low of 1.09 in 2022, down from 1.3 in 2020, according to state media. It ranks among the world’s lowest, among other East Asian economies.

Fuxian Yi, a demographer at the University of Wisconsin-Madison, predicts that new births will be about 8 million, the lowest level since the mid-18th century, when China’s total population was less than 200 million.

According to Yi, this is an ongoing effect of China’s one-child policy, which was imposed between 1980 and 2015, as smaller generations have fewer babies. He also cited economic factors.

Peng of Victoria University predicts fewer than 9 million births, but thinks falling below 8 million is “a plausible scenario.”

The Yuwa Population Research Institute issued a strategy paper in December urging authorities to “urgently” reverse a fall in newborns through significant family supports.

“The most worthwhile investment in China today is children,” it said.

(Adapted from ThePrint.in)

Categories: Geopolitics, Strategy, Uncategorized