A Reuters poll conducted on Friday indicated that international oil prices are expected to remain around $80 per barrel in 2024, with analysts predicting that weak global growth would limit demand and geopolitical concerns might give support.

Analysts questioned if supply reductions by the Organisation of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and their allies (OPEC+) would be able to maintain market stability.

This year, the global benchmark Brent crude price has averaged about $82.17 per barrel, and it was expected to fall by more than 9% annually owing to a combination of the strong currency, which was supported by high interest rates, and the slowdown in demand from China, the world’s largest consumer.

34 economists and experts surveyed predicted that Brent crude will average $82.56 in 2024, down from the consensus of $84.43 in November. Only one participant anticipated that costs will average more than $90 in the upcoming year.

US oil was predicted to average $78.84 in 2019 compared to $80.50 in the previous month.

“From the demand side we do not expect much impetus in the months to come,” said Thomas Wybierek, analyst at NORD Landbk.

“There is still a question mark behind the supply side. There are a lot of doubts (on whether) the OPEC+ alliance will be capable to reduce supply as decided recently.”

In order to maintain the market, OPEC+ oil producers decided last month to extend their current voluntary output cut by Saudi Arabia, amounting to roughly 2.2 million barrels per day for the first part of 2019.

OPEC+’s output is being reduced by almost 6 million barrels per day, and its market share has dropped to 27%.

“While it is difficult to maintain cooperation with all the members of OPEC+ – at this time and price level – all members are supportive of higher oil prices,” said John Paisie, president of Stratas Advisors.

Geopolitical uncertainties, according to analysts surveyed, will also keep oil prices volatile in the upcoming months.

“We think that there will be a greater concern about geopolitics in 2024 than in 2023 – and the associated risk premium will be substantially higher,” Paisie added.

Fears that a bigger battle could disrupt supplies from the Middle East, the world’s largest oil-supplying region, were raised by military skirmishes between Israel and Hamas. There are concerns that the recent ship attacks in the Red Sea may cause disruptions to shipping.

(Adapted from Reuters.com)

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