Despite increasing logistics costs as a result of the wartime export problem, Ukrainian farmers are not anticipated to cut the amount of winter wheat they sow for the 2024 harvest, a senior farming official told Reuters on Tuesday.

Ukraine is a large producer of wheat, and the closure of the Black Sea corridor, which was used to export grain safely throughout the conflict, sparked fear that producers could plant less wheat because their profit margins would be smaller due to more expensive export routes.

According to survey results cited by the agriculture ministry on Monday, farmers could actually reduce the amount of winter wheat they plant while increase the amount of winter rape they plant to a record high level for 2024.

However, according to First Deputy Agriculture Minister Taras Vysotskiy, the potential decrease in winter wheat production may only amount to 0.1%.

“Wheat not significantly – minus 0.1%” he said. The estimate has not previously been reported.

He predicted that this winter’s barley sowing would decrease by 5.4%, which would result in a decrease in the overall winter grain sowing area at the expense of other crops.

Winter wheat was sown on about 4.1 million hectares in Ukraine for the harvest in 2023, while winter barley was planted on about 615,000 hectares.

Winter wheat is a staple crop in Ukraine, making up at least 95% of the nation’s total wheat production.

With the threshing of 21.94 million metric tonnes of wheat, farmers have already finished the 2023 wheat harvest. In 2022, there were 20.7 million tonnes of harvest.

The ministry stated the overall winter crop sowing area might increase by 0.5 million hectares, or 8%, compared to the previous season, but it has not provided a projection for the total sowing area in 2024.

According to traders, farmers may plant less spring grain crops, with maize and spring barley likely to suffer the most, if they increase the area of winter crops they sow, particularly winter oilseeds.

Currently, Ukraine can only export a tiny amount of goods through its western land border with the EU and small river ports on the Danube.

Due to this, local farmers were compelled to change their 2023 sowing plans and convert from grain crops to oilseeds, which are more expensive but yield a smaller amount.

In 2023, Ukraine already decreased the amount of corn it sowed in favour of sunflowers.

(Adapted from Reuters.com)

Categories: Economy & Finance, Geopolitics, Regulations & Legal, Strategy, Uncategorized