In contrast to official numbers from Beijing that have been criticised as being too low, a U.S. investigation indicated that there were about 2 million additional fatalities in the two months after China dropped its “zero-Covid” limits.

According to a study from the Fred Hutchinson Cancer Centre in Seattle published on Thursday, there were 1.87 million extra deaths among adults 30 years of age and older from December 2022 to January from all causes, according to estimates. Except for Tibet, all of the provinces on the Chinese mainland reported deaths that were mostly among the elderly.

For a significant portion of the pandemic, Covid cases and fatalities were kept to a minimal in China thanks to its strong zero-Covid policy, which included mass testing, border closures, and prolonged urban lockdowns.

However, the virus was quickly released on 1.4 billion individuals who had scarcely been exposed to it when the government abruptly dropped the restrictions in December following rare nationwide mass protests.

The highly transmissible omicron variant caused the subsequent wave of infections, which experts claim resulted in many more hospitalisations and fatalities than were officially reported. They cited reports of increased activity at crematoriums and funeral homes, as well as satellite images that supported these claims.

The 1.87 million figure is significantly greater than the official figures from China, which stated that from early December 2022 to January 12, about 60,000 Covid-related deaths had been reported in medical facilities.

It also agrees with projections made by other academics, such as those revealed in a study by Zhanwei Du of the University of Hong Kong and Lauren Ancel Meyers of the University of Texas at Austin, which suggested Covid may have killed more than 1.4 million individuals in China between December 16, 2022, and January 19.

The estimate from the study, which was published on Thursday, was based on obituaries written by three Chinese institutions for both active and retired faculty members as well as on searches made on Baidu, a well-known Chinese internet search engine, for terms like “cremation” and “burial.”

“Our study of excess deaths related to the lifting of the zero-Covid policy in China sets an empirically derived benchmark estimate,” the researchers wrote. “These findings are important for understanding how the sudden propagation of Covid-19 across a population may impact population mortality.”

According to the research that has been done thus far, Jin Dong-yan, a virologist at the University of Hong Kong, the study did seem to be “close to the actual data.” Although the study’s method of data estimation is not “scientifically rigorous,” Jin said it is nonetheless a “objective” and “beneficial” endeavour.

According to Jin, the real statistics may differ from the study’s projections by a few percentage points. According to Jin, the university personnel who served as the study’s benchmarks are primarily urban intellectuals and may be distinguished by greater self-preparatory awareness, higher vaccination rates, and easier access to health care services. They may also have had more underlying medical issues than average people, which could offset this, Jin added. 

“The best approach would be for the country to be honest and transparent, disclosing everything just as it was done in previous years such as 2018 and 2019,” Jin said.

Less than 122,000 Covid-related deaths have been reported by China overall to the World Health Organisation. In contrast, the United States has reported more than 1.1 million deaths from COVID since the pandemic began.

Chinese officials accuse the United States, WHO, and others of politicking the pandemic while denying that they have hidden Covid data from the international world. According to them, they are currently reviewing excess deaths and won’t have a full picture of the Covid death toll until later.

The National Health Commission of China did not return calls on Friday.

(Adapted from CNBC.com)

Categories: Regulations & Legal, Uncategorized