While EU citizens are free to travel across EU states without a visa, with Scotland and Ireland wanting to remain with the EU could cost UK dearly as it will face the very issue it doesn’t want – free migration. If Britain decides to mitigate the issue with manned borders posts, it could potentially trigger an armed struggle.
In the wake of Britain’s surprise vote to leave the European Union, Catholic nationalists are open campaigning for a united Ireland Protestant unionists are queueing up for Irish passports.
Earlier Protestants unionists favoured Ireland to be part of the UK while Catholic nationalists favoured a united Ireland. Britain’s vote seems have bridged what earlier was unthinkable.
In a reflection of a similar trend, neighbouring Scotland has voted to remain within the EU, although Britain as a whole voted to leave with a vote of 56-48.
“I was always a ‘small u’ unionist. But I could not in all good conscience say I could vote for Northern Ireland to remain a member of the United Kingdom,” said Christopher Woodhouse, a 25-year-old from Belfast. He went on to add, “I am softening to the idea of Irish unity, purely on economic issues.”
On a more significant note he said, “I am a European.”
Since years, a large segment of the people of Northern Ireland, Catholics and Protestants alike, have favoured to be part of the United Kingdom, drawn mainly by its stability and prosperity. But this very concept has now been jeopardized by Brexit.
The idea of Scotland breaking free of Britain and continue to remain as part of the EU, is very real. Brexit has given a new centre around which the people’s hopes and aspirations could form – the European Union. The uncertainty of leaving the prosperous EU has created an economic fear in the minds of people.
“People are saying for the first time in their life they would vote for united Ireland, having never contemplated it before,” said Steven Agnew, the leader of the Green Party in Northern Ireland.
Leaving the EU raises costs
Although Britain has voted in favour of leaving the European Union, there is a significant cost attached to it, as Britain’s poorer provinces will now become more dependent on UK for their maintenance.
According to Ulster Bank, Northern Ireland’s biggest bank, the terms of exit are likely to be crucial. Unless negotiated with care, Northern Ireland could end up being a “no-go zone” for foreign direct investment. Additionally, Brexit could result in reduced government spending, higher unemployment levels and thus lower growth rates.
“My stomach is churning at all that’s happening,” said Robert McClenaghan, an Irish Republican Army member who is now a community worker, vis-à-vis the potential loss of hundreds of millions of euros for cross-community youth programs, funds for rehabilitating former militants and victim groups.
Ireland risks a return to old times
He went on to add, “We are in danger of a return to conflict – at a low intensity level – if those funds are taken away.”
Furthermore, the massive military checkpoints that dotted the border between UK and Ireland, which were dismantled following the peace deal could make an appearance if Scotland and Ireland decides to continue to remain with the EU.
While pro-Brexit politicians have said that the Irish frontier would remain open once Britain leaves the EU, however, the Pro-EU ‘Remain’ supporters have said this is not pragmatic as it would be next to impossible to limit immigrants from EU to enter Britain, since nationals of EU countries are free to enter Ireland.
“If they put a border up, the dissidents will blow it up,” said Sid Johnson, a 68-year-old unionist Leave voter shopping on Belfast’s Shankill Road. The situation could quickly escalate if a contingent of armed police are sent to defend the posts.
Under the terms of the peace deal, Sinn Fein, Ireland biggest nationalist party co-rules the province with the unionist DUP, which incidentally has campaigned for Brexit.
As per Sinn Fein’s party chairman, Britain’s vote has essentially “forfeited any mandate to represent the interests of people here”. The rhetoric later cooled down when Deputy First Minister Martin McGuinness said that Ireland could possibly hold a referendum “at some stage in the future”.
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